Mueller, B. L.; et al. (2018): Attribution of Arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to influences from natural, greenhouse-gas and anthropogenic aerosol forcing
Mueller, B. L.; Gillett, N. P.; Monahan, A. H.; Zwiers, F. W. (2018): Attribution of Arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to influences from natural, greenhouse-gas and anthropogenic aerosol forcing. In: J. Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1.
"We show that fingerprints from greenhouse-gas, natural and other anthropogenic forcings are detected in the three observed records of Arctic sea ice extent. Beyond that, our findings indicate that for the 1953 to 2012 period roughly 23% of the greenhouse-gas induced negative sea ice trend has been offset by a weak positive sea ice trend attributable to other anthropogenic forcing. We show that our detection and attribution results remain robust in the presence of emerging non-stationary internal climate variability acting upon sea ice using a perfect model experiment and data from two large ensembles of climate simulations."