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Mengis, Nadine; et al. (2018): 1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing

Mengis, Nadine; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Jalbert, Jonathan; Matthews, H. Damon (2018): 1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing. In Scientific reports 8 (1), p. 5831. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1.

"Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. [...] In this scenario, negative emissions would be required to compensate not only for the increasing non-CO2 climate forcing, but also for the declining natural carbon sinks."

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