30.09.2021

# New Publications

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Warszawski, Lila; et al. (2021): All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal

Warszawski, Lila; Kriegler, Elmar; Lenton, Timothy; Gaffner, Owen; Jacob, Daniela; Klingenfeld, Daniel et al. (2021): All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal. In Environmental Research Letters Volume 16 (6).

"Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range)."

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09.08.2021

# New Publications

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Hornigold, Thomas (2021): Tradeoffs inherent in solar geoengineering peak-shaving strategies

Hornigold, Thomas (2021): Tradeoffs inherent in solar geoengineering peak-shaving strategies. Available online at https://arxiv.org/pdf/2108.00096.

"In this study, we explore general features of such scenarios, using a combination of simple analytical relationships between emissions and temperatures and modelling to illustrate the strong trade-off between the duration of geoengineering deployment and the temperature overshoot that is suppressed by geoengineering, as well as the scale of negative emissions that are required."

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26.07.2021

# New Publications

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Dove, Zachary; et al. (2021): The middle powers roar: Exploring a minilateral solar geoengineering deployment scenario

Dove, Zachary; Horton, Joshua; Ricke, Katharine (2021): The middle powers roar: Exploring a minilateral solar geoengineering deployment scenario. In Futures 132, p. 102816. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2021.102816.

"Here we reflect on our participation in a solar geoengineering governance scenario exercise conducted at the 2019 International Summer School on Geoengineering Governance."

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22.07.2021

# Media

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energypost.eu: Comparing four Carbon Removal scenarios (IPCC, IEA, McKinsey, NGFS) and policy implications

"Simon Göss at cr.hub reviews four major scenarios from the IPCC, IEA, McKinsey, and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)."

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22.07.2021

# New Publications

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Schenuit, Felix; et al. (2021): A Scenario of Solar Geoengineering Governance: Vulnerable States Demand, and Act

Schenuit, Felix; Gilligan, Jonathan; Viswamohanan, Anjali (2021): A Scenario of Solar Geoengineering Governance: Vulnerable States Demand, and Act. In Futures. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2021.102809.

"In this scenario, states vulnerable to impacts of climate change deploy solar geoengineering; the article provides insights into possible responses of a Great Power Bloc (Member of UN Security Council + Japan and Germany)."

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17.05.2021

# New Publications

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Keyßer, Lorenz T.; Lenzen, Manfred (2021): 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways

Keyßer, Lorenz T.; Lenzen, Manfred (2021): 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways. In Nat Comms 12 (1), p. 2676. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22884-9.

"As a first step to address this gap, this paper compares 1.5  °C degrowth scenarios with IPCC archetype scenarios, using a simplified quantitative representation of the fuel-energy-emissions nexus. Here we find that the degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability compared to technology-driven pathways, such as the reliance on high energy-GDP decoupling, large-scale carbon dioxide removal and large-scale and high-speed renewable energy transformation."

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03.03.2021

# Media

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NCAR: CCIS 2020 Webinar Series: Recordings

"Main Goals of the CCIS Webinar Series: Conceptualization of a research framework for assessing proposed climate intervention strategies: Establish shared understanding of ongoing research of climate intervention strategies in different research communities and main challenges. Reach a perspectival integration for completeness of knowledge/understanding. Identify elements of a research program, identify existing and new working groups of such a program."

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22.02.2021

# New Publications

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Rueda, O.; et al. (2021): Negative-emissions technology portfolios to meet the 1.5 °C target

Rueda, O.; Mogollón, J. M.; Tukker, A.; Scherer, L. (2021): Negative-emissions technology portfolios to meet the 1.5 °C target. In Global Environmental Change, p. 102238. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102238.

"Here, we present a comprehensive framework, integrating NETs’ critical performance aspects of feasibility, effectiveness, and side impacts, to define the optimal technology mix within realistic outlooks."

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01.09.2020

# New Publications

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Parson, Edward A.; Buck, Holly J. (2020): Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal: The Problem of Phasedown

Parson, Edward A.; Buck, Holly J. (2020): Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal: The Problem of Phasedown. In Global Environmental Politics 20 (3), pp. 70–92. DOI: 10.1162/glep_a_00575.

"The future phasedown need implies suggestive guidance for near-term decisions about removal methods and design of associated policy and business environments. First, variation among methods’ scale constraints and cost structures suggests a rough ordering of methods by severity of future phasedown challenges. Second, of the three potential means to motivate removals—profitable products incorporating removed carbon, extended emissions-pricing policies, or public procurement contracts—public procurement appears to present the fewest roadblocks to future phasedown."

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25.08.2020

# New Publications

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Muratori, Matteo; et al. (2020): EMF-33 insights on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

Muratori, Matteo; Bauer, Nico; Rose, Steven K.; Wise, Marshall; Daioglou, Vassilis; Cui, Yiyun et al. (2020): EMF-33 insights on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02784-5.

"This paper explores the potential role of bioenergy coupled to carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (BECCS) in long-term global scenarios."

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