18.10.2021

# New Publications

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Wei, Yi-Ming; et al. (2021): Pathway comparison of limiting global warming to 2°C

Wei, Yi-Ming; Liu, Li-Jing; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Yu, Bi-Ying; Liu, Lan-Cui; Yao, Yun-Fei et al. (2021): Pathway comparison of limiting global warming to 2°C. In Energy and Climate Change, p. 100063. DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2021.100063.

"The Paris Agreement has set a goal to limit the global average temperature rise to within 2°C from the pre-industrial level. This study aims to explore the possible pathways to achieve this challenging goal by using the Global Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis module (GEEPA) of the China's Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model (C3IAM). Results show that a target temperature of 2°C dramatically reduces global CO2 emissions in the future. Under model parameters, by the end of this century, total global CO2 emissions will fall below 5 Gt, and cumulated CO2 emissions will be reduced to less than 1000 Gt. The key to meeting the 2°C target lies in the low-carbon transformation of energy and electricity systems. Implementation of climate policies and technical measures will progressively reduce conventional fossil energy consumption and replace it with low-carbon energy solutions. The electricity structure will gradually shift from dominance by conventional fossil energy to low-carbon energy, and even to zero-carbon electricity generation. We found that emission reduction pathways that include large amounts of fossil fuel power generation with CCS relying on subsidies may create higher GDP loss, but also that later penetration of negative emission technology can increase the carbon emission budget in the early stage."

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08.10.2021

# Media

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Green Wire: USDA pledges billions for climate-smart farm projects, resilience

"Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said today he’ll use billions of dollars from a Depression-era agency to pay for a carbon-saving program for farms, and to help farmers prepare for drought and adverse weather associated with climate change."

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08.10.2021

# New Publications

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Berndes, Göran; Cowie, Annette (2021): Land sector impacts of early climate action

Berndes, Göran; Cowie, Annette (2021): Land sector impacts of early climate action. In Nat Sustain 3, p. 515. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00777-5.

"Integrated assessment models are widely used to assess climate change mitigation strategies. Comparing scenarios from several integrated assessment models, a study now highlights the benefits and trade-offs of near-term mitigation to reduce mitigation challenges in the longer term."

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08.10.2021

# New Publications

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Hasegawa, Tomoko; et al. (2021): Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Frank, Stefan; Humpenöder, Florian; Bertram, Christoph; Després, Jacques et al. (2021): Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions. In Nat Sustain 573, p. 357. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w.

"Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity."

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06.10.2021

# Media

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PhysOrg: Research reveals potential of an overlooked climate change solution

"Earlier this month, President Biden urged other countries to join the U.S. and European Union in a commitment to slashing methane emissions. Two new Stanford-led studies could help pave the way by laying out a blueprint for coordinating research on methane removal technologies, and modeling how the approach could have an outsized effect on reducing future peak temperatures."

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30.09.2021

# New Publications

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Warszawski, Lila; et al. (2021): All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal

Warszawski, Lila; Kriegler, Elmar; Lenton, Timothy; Gaffner, Owen; Jacob, Daniela; Klingenfeld, Daniel et al. (2021): All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal. In Environmental Research Letters Volume 16 (6).

"Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range)."

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27.09.2021

# New Publications

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Glenk, Klaus; et al. (2021): The opportunity cost of delaying climate action: Peatland restoration and resilience to climate change

Glenk, Klaus; Faccioli, Michela; Martin-Ortega, Julia; Schulze, Christoph; Potts, Jacqueline (2021): The opportunity cost of delaying climate action: Peatland restoration and resilience to climate change. In Global Environmental Change 70, p. 102323. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102323.

"Ecosystem restoration and, in particular, peatland restoration, are considered a promising greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy to move towards net zero emissions. To remain within acceptable limits for projected warming scenarios, inaction with respect to GHG mitigation in the short term implies a need for even larger removals of GHGs in the longer term, which can be conceptualized as a ‘mitigation debt’. This paper explores the economic implications of delaying GHG mitigation through ecosystem restoration using data of a large survey (N = 1377) that included a choice experiment to elicit the public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for peatland restoration in Scotland, UK."

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17.09.2021

# New Publications

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Austin, Maura M.K.; Converse, Benjamin A. (2021): In search of weakened resolve: Does climate-engineering awareness decrease individuals’ commitment to mitigation?

Austin, Maura M.K.; Converse, Benjamin A. (2021): In search of weakened resolve: Does climate-engineering awareness decrease individuals’ commitment to mitigation? In Journal of Environmental Psychology 356 (6335), p. 101690. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101690.

"As climate predictions become more dire, it is increasingly clear that society cannot rely on mitigation alone. In response, climatologists and engineers have been developing climate-engineering technology to directly intervene on the climate through strategies such as solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal. While these technologies have some encouraging features, they also involve risk on many dimensions. One behavioral risk that concerns many observers is the possibility that the prominence of climate-engineering scenarios could decrease the public's commitment to mitigation, a concern variously described as moral hazard or weakened resolve. Across 8 experiments (N = 2514) we tested whether exposure to naturalistic information about climate-engineering technology decreases individuals' commitment to mitigation efforts."

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09.08.2021

# New Publications

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Belaia, Mariia; et al. (2021): Optimal Climate Policy in 3D: Mitigation, Carbon Removal, and Solar Geoengineering

Belaia, Mariia; Moreno-Cruz, Juan B.; Keith, David W. (2021): Optimal Climate Policy in 3D: Mitigation, Carbon Removal, and Solar Geoengineering. In Clim. Change Econ., p. 2150008. DOI: 10.1142/S2010007821500081.

"We introduce solar geoengineering (SG) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) into an integrated assessment model to analyze the trade-offs between mitigation, SG, and CDR."

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19.07.2021

# New Publications

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Osaka, Shannon; et al. (2021): Framing “nature‐based” solutions to climate change

Osaka, Shannon; Bellamy, Rob; Castree, Noel (2021): Framing “nature‐based” solutions to climate change. In Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.729.

"We review what counts (and what does not count) as a natural solution, and find that those labeled natural are routinely framed under technical and social appraisal criteria as being more beneficial, cost effective, mature, and democratic than ostensibly artificial counterparts."

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