16.02.2019

# New Publications

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Mengis, N.; et al. (2019): Climate engineering–induced changes in correlations between Earth system variables—implications for appropriate indicator selection

Mengis, N.; Keller, D.; Rickels, W.; Quaas, M.; Oschlies, A. (2019): Climate engineering–induced changes in correlations between Earth system variables—implications for appropriate indicator selection. In: Climatic Change 104 (C7), S. 669. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02389-7.

"Climate engineering (CE) deployment would alter prevailing relationships between Earth system variables, making indicators and metrics used so far in the climate change assessment context less appropriate to assess CE measures. Achieving a comprehensive CE assessment requires a systematic and transparent reevaluation of the indicator selection process from Earth system variables. Here, we provide a first step towards such a systematic assessment of changes in correlations between Earth system variables following simulated deployment of different CE methods."

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27.01.2019

# New Publications

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Rosenfeld, D.; et al. (2019): Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low level clouds

Rosenfeld, D.; Zhu, Y.; Wang, M.; Zheng, Y.; Goren, T.; Yu, S. (2019): Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low level clouds. In: Science (New York, N.Y.). DOI: 10.1126/science.aav0566.

"Lack of reliable estimates of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) aerosols over oceans has severely limited our ability to quantify their effects on cloud properties and extent of cooling by reflecting solar radiation – a key uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing. Here we introduce a methodology for ascribing cloud properties to CCN and isolating the aerosol effects from meteorological effects."

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14.01.2019

# New Publications

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Pfrommer, T.; et al. (2019): Establishing causation in climate litigation

Pfrommer, T.; Goeschl, T.; Proelss, A.; Carrier, M.; Lenhard, J.; Martin, H. et al. (2019): Establishing causation in climate litigation. Admissibility and reliability. In: Climatic Change 421 (6926), S. 891. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2362-4.

"Climate litigation has attracted renewed interest as a governance tool. A key challenge in climate litigation is to assess the factual basis of causation. Extreme weather attribution, specifically the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR), has been proposed as a way to tackle this challenge. What remains unclear is how attribution science interacts with the legal admissibility of evidence based on climate models. "

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28.12.2018

# New Publications

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Chen, Y.; et al. (2019): Economic losses of carbon emissions from circum-Arctic permafrost regions under RCP-SSP scenarios

Chen, Y.; Liu, A.; Zhang, Z.; Hope, C.; Crabbe, J. (2019): Economic losses of carbon emissions from circum-Arctic permafrost regions under RCP-SSP scenarios. In: Science of the Total Environment 658, S. 1064–1068. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.299.

"In this study, we use the PInc-PanTher model to estimate carbon emissions from thawing permafrost in the circum-Arctic during 2010–2100 followed by the PAGE09 integrated assessment model to evaluate the net economic losses caused by these permafrost carbon emissions."

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17.12.2018

# New Publications

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Bonetti, F.; et al. (2018): Multiple input control strategies for robust and adaptive climate engineering in a low-order 3-box model

Bonetti, F.; McInnes, C. (2018): Multiple input control strategies for robust and adaptive climate engineering in a low-order 3-box model. In: Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 474 (2217), S. 20180447. DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2018.0447.

"A low-order 3-box energy balance model for the climate system is employed with a multivariable control scheme for the evaluation of new robust and adaptive climate engineering strategies using solar radiation management. The climate engineering measures are deployed in three boxes thus representing northern, southern and central bands. It is shown that, through heat transport between the boxes, it is possible to effect a degree of latitudinal control through the reduction of insolation."

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15.11.2018

# New Publications

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Bala, G.; et al. (2018): Solar Geoengineering Research in India

Bala, G.; Gupta, A. (2018): Solar Geoengineering Research in India. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0122.1.

"We present here a brief account of the Indian scientific research into solar geoengineering. Climate modeling constitutes the major component of this geoengineering-relevant climate science research. The recent funding initiative by the Department of Science and Technology, the main funding agency for scientific research in India, in support of geoengineering modeling research and its efforts to bring natural, social and political scientists together for an evaluation solar geoengineering at meetings are also discussed. Finally, the directions for future scientific research into geoengineering in India are also discussed."

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04.11.2018

# New Publications

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Duan, L.; et al. (2018): Comparison of the Fast and Slow Climate Response to Three Radiation Management Geoengineering Schemes

Duan, L.; Cao, L.; Bala, G.; Caldeira, K. (2018): Comparison of the Fast and Slow Climate Response to Three Radiation Management Geoengineering Schemes. In: J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. DOI: 10.1029/2018JD029034.

"Geoengineering has been proposed as a backup approach to rapidly cool the Earth and avoid damages associated with anthropogenic climate change. In this study, we use the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) to conduct a series of slab‐ocean and prescribed sea‐surface‐temperature simulations to investigate the climate response to three proposed radiation management geoengineering schemes: stratospheric aerosol increase (SAI), marine cloud brightening (MCB), and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT)."

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07.09.2018

# New Publications

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Li, Y.; et al. (2018): Climate model shows large-scale wind and solar farms in the Sahara increase rain and vegetation

Li, Y.; Kalnay, E.; Motesharrei, S.; Rivas, J.; Kucharski, F.; Kirk-Davidoff, D. et al. (2018): Climate model shows large-scale wind and solar farms in the Sahara increase rain and vegetation. In: Science 361 (6406), S. 1019–1022. DOI: 10.1126/science.aar5629.

"In this study, we used a climate model with dynamic vegetation to show that large-scale installations of wind and solar farms covering the Sahara lead to a local temperature increase and more than a twofold precipitation increase, especially in the Sahel, through increased surface friction and reduced albedo. The resulting increase in vegetation further enhances precipitation, creating a positive albedo–precipitation–vegetation feedback that contributes ~80% of the precipitation increase for wind farms. This local enhancement is scale dependent and is particular to the Sahara, with small impacts in other deserts."

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22.08.2018

# New Publications

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Oschlies, A. (2018): Bewertung von Modellqualität und Unsicherheiten in der Klimamodellierung

Oschlies, A. (2018): Bewertung von Modellqualität und Unsicherheiten in der Klimamodellierung. In: Janich N.; Rhein L. (Hg.): Unsicherheit als Herausforderung für die Wissenschaft: Peter Lang D. DOI: 10.3726/b14379

"The chapter discusses sources of uncertainties in climate models and their possible impacts on the model results. The three criteria “adequacy”, “consistency” and “representativeness” are suggested for a comprehensive assessment of the quality of climate models. The fit to data determines the models representativeness. For many climate variables, such as precipitation, cloudiness and the climate sensitivity, this has not significantly improved from the second-to-last to the last assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."

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26.05.2018

# New Publications

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Tilmes, Simone; et al. (2018): CESM1(WACCM) Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) Project

Tilmes, Simone; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Mills, Michael J.; Simpson, Isla R. et al. (2018): CESM1(WACCM) Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) Project. In Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0267.1.

"This paper describes the stratospheric aerosol geoengineering large ensemble (GLENS) project, which promotes the use of a unique model dataset, performed with the Community Earth System Model, with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component (CESM1(WACCM)), to investigate global and regional impacts of geoengineering. The performed simulations were designed to achieve multiple simultaneous climate goals, by strategically placing sulfur injections at four different locations in the stratosphere, unlike many earlier studies that targeted globally averaged surface temperature by placing injections in regions at or around the equator."

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