22.07.2019

# New Publications

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Realmonte, G.; et al. (2019): An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways

Realmonte, G.; Drouet, L.; Gambhir, A.; Glynn, J.; Hawkes, A.; Köberle, A.; Tavoni, M. (2019): An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways. In: Nat Comms 10 (1), S. 3277. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10842-5.

"The feasibility of large-scale biological CO2 removal to achieve stringent climate targets remains unclear. Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) offers an alternative negative emissions technology (NET) option. Here we conduct the first inter-model comparison on the role of DACCS in 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios, under a variety of techno-economic assumptions."

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17.06.2019

# New Publications

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Asayama, S.; et al. (2019): Engineering climate debt: temperature overshoot and peak-shaving as risky subprime mortgage lending

Asayama, S.; Hulme, M. (2019): Engineering climate debt: temperature overshoot and peak-shaving as risky subprime mortgage lending. In: Climate Policy 33 (3), p. 1–10. DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2019.1623165.

"Whilst some view optimistically the strategic interdependence between SRM and CDR, we argue that this strategy comes with a risk of escalating ‘climate debt’. We explain our position using the logic of debt and the analogy of subprime mortgage lending. In overshoot and peak-shaving scenarios, the role of CDR and SRM is to compensate for delayed mitigation, placing the world in a double debt: ‘emissions debt’ and ‘temperature debt’."

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31.05.2019

# New Publications

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Vielstädte, L.; et al. (2019): Footprint and detectability of a well leaking CO2 in the Central North Sea. Implications from a field experiment and numerical modelling

Vielstädte, L.; Linke, P.; Schmidt, M.; Sommer, S.; Haeckel, M.; Braack, M.; Wallmann, K. (2019): Footprint and detectability of a well leaking CO2 in the Central North Sea. Implications from a field experiment and numerical modelling. In: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 84, S. 190–203. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.03.012.

"Existing wells pose a risk for the loss of carbon dioxide (CO2) from storage sites, which might compromise the suitability of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies as climate change mitigation options. Here, we show results of a controlled CO2 release experiment at the Sleipner CO2 storage site and numerical simulations that evaluate the detectability and environmental consequences of a well leaking CO2 into the Central North Sea (CNS)."

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27.05.2019

# Calls & events

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Call for Abstracts: Aerosol Approaches to Climate Engineering. Robert Dickinson Symposium (AMS100)

Deadline: 1. August 2019

"This joint session covers broad topics such as results from climate modeling, using analogs such as volcanic eruptions and ship tracks, and development of technology to actually implement solar geoengineering. Papers on the physics of climate engineering should be submitted to this joint session, and on ethical and governance issues related to climate engineering to the session "Ethics and governance of weather modification and geoengineering" at the 22nd Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification. Invited keynote speaker: Simone Tilmes (NCAR). Session Chair: Alan Robock (Rutgers University)."

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11.03.2019

# New Publications

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Rogers, K.; et al. (2019): Wetland carbon storage controlled by millennial-scale variation in relative sea-level rise

Rogers, K.; Kelleway, J.; Saintilan, N.; Megonigal, P.; Adams, J.; Holmquist, J. et al. (2019): Wetland carbon storage controlled by millennial-scale variation in relative sea-level rise. In: Nature 567 (7746), S. 91–95. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-0951-7.

"Coastal wetlands (mangrove, tidal marsh and seagrass) sustain the highest rates of carbon sequestration per unit area of all natural systems, primarily because of their comparatively high productivity and preservation of organic carbon within sedimentary substrates. [...] Our results suggest that coastal wetlands characteristic of tectonically stable coastlines have lower carbon storage owing to a lack of accommodation space and that carbon sequestration increases according to the vertical and lateral accommodation space created by RSLR. Such wetlands will provide long-term mitigating feedback effects that are relevant to global climate–carbon modelling."

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28.02.2019

# Media

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Science: A world without clouds? Hardly clear, climate scientists say

"Could the sheets of gray clouds that hang low over the ocean disappear suddenly in a warming world? Yes, if you believe a study published yesterday in Nature Geoscience—and the amplifying media coverage of it. If atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels triple—an unlikely, but not implausible scenario given past rates of human emissions—these stratocumulus clouds could vanish in a frightening feedback loop. Fewer of the cooling clouds would mean a warmer Earth, which in turn would mean fewer clouds, leading to an 8°C jump in warming—a staggering, world-altering change."

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16.02.2019

# New Publications

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Mengis, N.; et al. (2019): Climate engineering–induced changes in correlations between Earth system variables—implications for appropriate indicator selection

Mengis, N.; Keller, D.; Rickels, W.; Quaas, M.; Oschlies, A. (2019): Climate engineering–induced changes in correlations between Earth system variables—implications for appropriate indicator selection. In: Climatic Change 104 (C7), S. 669. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02389-7.

"Climate engineering (CE) deployment would alter prevailing relationships between Earth system variables, making indicators and metrics used so far in the climate change assessment context less appropriate to assess CE measures. Achieving a comprehensive CE assessment requires a systematic and transparent reevaluation of the indicator selection process from Earth system variables. Here, we provide a first step towards such a systematic assessment of changes in correlations between Earth system variables following simulated deployment of different CE methods."

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27.01.2019

# New Publications

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Rosenfeld, D.; et al. (2019): Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low level clouds

Rosenfeld, D.; Zhu, Y.; Wang, M.; Zheng, Y.; Goren, T.; Yu, S. (2019): Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low level clouds. In: Science (New York, N.Y.). DOI: 10.1126/science.aav0566.

"Lack of reliable estimates of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) aerosols over oceans has severely limited our ability to quantify their effects on cloud properties and extent of cooling by reflecting solar radiation – a key uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing. Here we introduce a methodology for ascribing cloud properties to CCN and isolating the aerosol effects from meteorological effects."

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14.01.2019

# New Publications

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Pfrommer, T.; et al. (2019): Establishing causation in climate litigation

Pfrommer, T.; Goeschl, T.; Proelss, A.; Carrier, M.; Lenhard, J.; Martin, H. et al. (2019): Establishing causation in climate litigation. Admissibility and reliability. In: Climatic Change 421 (6926), S. 891. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2362-4.

"Climate litigation has attracted renewed interest as a governance tool. A key challenge in climate litigation is to assess the factual basis of causation. Extreme weather attribution, specifically the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR), has been proposed as a way to tackle this challenge. What remains unclear is how attribution science interacts with the legal admissibility of evidence based on climate models. "

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28.12.2018

# New Publications

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Chen, Y.; et al. (2019): Economic losses of carbon emissions from circum-Arctic permafrost regions under RCP-SSP scenarios

Chen, Y.; Liu, A.; Zhang, Z.; Hope, C.; Crabbe, J. (2019): Economic losses of carbon emissions from circum-Arctic permafrost regions under RCP-SSP scenarios. In: Science of the Total Environment 658, S. 1064–1068. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.299.

"In this study, we use the PInc-PanTher model to estimate carbon emissions from thawing permafrost in the circum-Arctic during 2010–2100 followed by the PAGE09 integrated assessment model to evaluate the net economic losses caused by these permafrost carbon emissions."

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