18.10.2021

# New Publications

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Borth, Amanda C.; Nicholson, Simon (2021): A Deliberative Orientation to Governing Carbon Dioxide Removal: Actionable Recommendations for National-Level Action

Borth, Amanda C.; Nicholson, Simon (2021): A Deliberative Orientation to Governing Carbon Dioxide Removal: Actionable Recommendations for National-Level Action. In Front. Clim. 3. DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.684209

"Effective and legitimate governance of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) requires that the needs, interests, and perspectives of those liable to bear the burdens of CDR's effects be present in decision-making and oversight processes. This ideal has been widely recognized in prior academic work. How, though, in a practical sense, is this deliberative aspect of CDR governance to be understood? In this policy brief, we look at the future incorporation of carbon removal pledges into the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of countries under the Paris Agreement, and we argue for and explore a deliberative orientation when it comes to the inclusion of CDR into country-level climate change response goals. The aim is to provide practical guidance on deliberation as a toolkit and set of practices."

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18.10.2021

# New Publications

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Mohan, Aniruddh; et al. (2021): UNFCCC must confront the political economy of net-negative emissions

Mohan, Aniruddh; Geden, Oliver; Fridahl, Mathias; Buck, Holly Jean; Peters, Glen P. (2021): UNFCCC must confront the political economy of net-negative emissions. In One Earth. DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.10.001.

"Recent demands by developing countries, like India, that developed countries need to reach net-negative emissions, must be negotiated seriously under the UNFCCC. Failure to acknowledge that limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5°C leaves very little carbon budget for equitable redistribution risks further ambiguity on how to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals."

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30.09.2021

# New Publications

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Warszawski, Lila; et al. (2021): All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal

Warszawski, Lila; Kriegler, Elmar; Lenton, Timothy; Gaffner, Owen; Jacob, Daniela; Klingenfeld, Daniel et al. (2021): All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal. In Environmental Research Letters Volume 16 (6).

"Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range)."

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13.09.2021

# New Publications

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Otto, Danny; et al. (2021): Exploring Narratives on Negative Emissions Technologies in the Post-Paris Era

Otto, Danny; Thoni, Terese; Wittstock, Felix; Beck, Silke (2021): Exploring Narratives on Negative Emissions Technologies in the Post-Paris Era. In Front. Clim. 3. DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.684135.

"Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs)—technologies that remove additional greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the atmosphere—are receiving greater political attention. They are introduced as a backstop method for achieving temperature targets. A focal point in the discussions on NETs are the emission and mitigation pathways assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Drawing on perspectives from Science & Technology Studies (STS) and discourse analysis, the paper explores the emergence of narratives about NETs and reconstructs how the treatment of NETs within IPCC assessments became politicized terrain of configuration for essentially conflicting interests concerning long-term developments in the post-Paris regime."

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30.08.2021

# Political Papers

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Abram, S.; et al. (2020): Just Transition: Pathways to Socially Inclusive Decarbonisation. COP26 Universities Network Briefing

Abram, S.; Atkins, E.; Dietzel, A.; Hammond, M.; Jenkins, K.; Kiamba, L. et al. (2020): Just Transition: Pathways to Socially Inclusive Decarbonisation. COP26 Universities Network Briefing. COP26. UK. Available online at https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/Media_758106_smxx.pdf.

"To avoid the worst effects of climate change, the world needs to decarbonise at an unprecedented speed and scale. A growing number of countries, including the UK, have set ‘net-zero’ targets to end their contribution to global warming within the next decades, with differing degrees of popular support. [...] Covid-19 serves as a stark reminder that socio-economic disruptions tend to worsen social inequalities, with pandemic policies disproportionately affecting low-skilled workers, minorities, women and other vulnerable groups. Incidentally, the Covid-19 response has simulated an unintended and short-lived decarbonisation experience – taking a heavy toll on society and especially those most vulnerable to poverty. Against this backdrop, it is increasingly recognised that the transition to a post-carbon economy needs to be green, sustainable and socially inclusive, with the Paris Agreement referring to the ‘imperatives of a just transition’ and the EU vowing to ‘leave no one behind’ in its proposed Green Deal. This briefing outlines what kind of governance policies, modalities, institutions, spaces and actors will be required to make sure that the transition is socially inclusive and supported by citizens."

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13.08.2021

# Political Papers

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IPCC (2021): AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

IPCC (2021): AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.

"The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report addresses the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science, and combining multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, and global and regional climate simulations."

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02.08.2021

# Media

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CNBC: IIF sees huge potential for voluntary carbon credits, predicts $100 billion a year market by 2050

"It comes at a time when policymakers and business leaders are under intensifying pressure to deliver on promises made as part of the landmark Paris Agreement ahead of this year’s COP26, due to be held in Glasgow, Scotland in early November."

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28.04.2021

# New Publications

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Pasztor, Janos; Harrison, Nicholas (2021): Introduction to the Special Issue: ‘Governing Climate‐altering Approaches’

Pasztor, Janos; Harrison, Nicholas (2021): Introduction to the Special Issue: ‘Governing Climate‐altering Approaches’. In Glob Policy 12 (S1), pp. 5–7. DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.12943.

"This special issue presents new insights relating to the governance of climate‐altering approaches together with possible ways to address knowledge and governance gaps in future."

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28.04.2021

# New Publications

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Mace, M. J.; et al. (2021): Large‐Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal to Meet the 1.5°C Limit: Key Governance Gaps, Challenges and Priority Responses

Mace, M. J.; Fyson, Claire L.; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hare, William L. (2021): Large‐Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal to Meet the 1.5°C Limit: Key Governance Gaps, Challenges and Priority Responses. In Glob Policy 12 (S1), pp. 67–81. DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.12921.

"This paper considers governance challenges that arise from the need to rely on CDR to meet the Paris Agreement’s long‐term temperature goal."

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28.04.2021

# New Publications

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Duan, Hongbo; et al. (2021): Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit

Duan, Hongbo; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Kejun; Bertram, Christoph; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kriegler, Elmar et al. (2021): Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit. In Science (New York, N.Y.) 372 (6540), pp. 378–385. DOI: 10.1126/science.aba8767.

"By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the “no policy” case."

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