17.08.2018

# New Publications

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Pfrommer, T. (2018): Diverging Regional Climate Preferences and the Assessment of Solar Geoengineering

Pfrommer, T. (2018): Diverging Regional Climate Preferences and the Assessment of Solar Geoengineering. Heidelberg (Discussion Paper Series, 0654). DOI: 10.11588/heidok.00025204

"Solar Geoengineering (SG) is a set of potential technologies to counteract climate change. While SG can only imperfectly compensate for temperature changes at the regional level, studies assessing regional SG impacts indicated so far that regional temperature disparities from SG may not be as severe as previously thought. A shortcoming of that literature is its assumption that regions’ temperature preferences correspond to some historic baseline climate. I extend the main framework for examining regional SG impacts by allowing for regions to have temperature preferences diverging from the baseline climate, showing that the impact of these diverging preferences can be split into two components."

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16.08.2018

# New Publications

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Schulz, I.; et al. (2018): Remarkable structural resistance of a nanoflagellate-dominated plankton community to iron fertilization during the Southern Ocean experiment LOHAFEX

Schulz, I.; Montresor, M.; Klaas, C.; Assmy, P.; Wolzenburg, S.; Gauns, M. et al. (2018): Remarkable structural resistance of a nanoflagellate-dominated plankton community to iron fertilization during the Southern Ocean experiment LOHAFEX. In: Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 601, S. 77–95. DOI: 10.3354/meps12685.

"We attribute the unusually high biomass attained and maintained by ANF to the absence of their grazers, the salps, and to constraints on protozooplankton grazers by heavy predation exerted by the large copepod stock. The resistance to change of the ecosystem structure over 38 d after fertilization, indicated by homogeneity at regional and temporal scales, suggests that it was locked into a stable, mature state that had evolved in the course of the seasonal cycle. The LOHAFEX bloom provides a case study of a resistant/robust dynamic equilibrium between auto- and heterotrophic ecosystem components resulting in low vertical flux both inside and outside the patch despite high biomass levels."

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13.08.2018

# New Publications

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Heyen, D.; et al. (2018): Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering

Heyen, D.; Horton, J.; Moreno C. (2018): Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering. Clash or cooperation. Munich: CESifo Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute (CESifo working paper Category 10, Energy and climate economics, no. 7180). Online verfügbar unter http://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/publications/docbase/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2018/wp-cesifo-2018-07/12012018007180.html.

"We analyze whether the threat of counter-geoengineering technologies capable of negating the climatic effects of solar geoengineering can overcome the free-driver problem and tilt the game in favor of international cooperation. Our game-theoretical model of asymmetric countries allows for a rigorous analysis of the strategic interaction surrounding solar geoengineering and counter-geoengineering. "

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13.08.2018

# New Publications

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Hamilton, D. S.; et al. (2018): Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing

Hamilton, D. S.; Hantson, S.; Scott, C. E.; Kaplan, J. O.; Pringle, K. J.; Nieradzik, L. P. et al. (2018): Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing. In: nature communications 9 (1), S. 3182. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05592-9.

"Uncertainty in pre-industrial natural aerosol emissions is a major component of the overall uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Improved characterisation of natural emissions and their radiative effects can therefore increase the accuracy of global climate model projections. Here we show that revised assumptions about pre-industrial fire activity result in significantly increased aerosol concentrations in the pre-industrial atmosphere."

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11.08.2018

# New Publications

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Proctor, J.; et al. (2018): Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions

Proctor, J.; Hsiang, S.; Burney, J.; Burke, M.; Schlenker, W. (2018): Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions. In: Nature. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0417-3.

"Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates, to our knowledge, of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols created by the eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, and how these changes in sunlight affected global crop yields."

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08.08.2018

# New Publications

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Harper, A. B.; et al. (2018): Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

Harper, A. B.; Powell, T.; Cox, P. M.; House, J.; Huntingford, C.; Lenton, T. M. et al. (2018): Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets. In: Nat Comms 9 (1), S. 405. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z.

"Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more eficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS."

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08.08.2018

# New Publications

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Steffen, W.; et al. (2018): Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Steffen, W.; Rockström, J.; Richardson, K.; Lenton, T. M.; Folke, C.; Liverman, D. et al. (2018): Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115.

"We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies."

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08.08.2018

# New Publications

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Bond-Lamberty, B.; et al. (2018): Globally rising soil heterotrophic respiration over recent decades

Bond-Lamberty, B.; Bailey, V. L.; Chen, M.; Gough, C. M.; Vargas, R. (2018): Globally rising soil heterotrophic respiration over recent decades. In: Nature 560 (7716), S. 80–83. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0358-x

"Here we use an updated global soil respiration database9 to show that the observed soil surface RH:RS ratio increased significantly, from 0.54 to 0.63, between 1990 and 2014 (P = 0.009). Three additional lines of evidence provide support for this finding. By analysing two separate global gross primary production datasets10,11, we find that the ratios of both RH and RS to gross primary production have increased over time."

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07.08.2018

# New Publications

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Goldberg, David; et al. (2018): Geological storage of CO 2 in sub-seafloor basalt. The CarbonSAFE pre-feasibility study offshore Washington State and British Columbia

Goldberg, David; Aston, Lara; Bonneville, Alain; Demirkanli, Inci; Evans, Curtis; Fisher, Andrew et al. (2018): Geological storage of CO 2 in sub-seafloor basalt. The CarbonSAFE pre-feasibility study offshore Washington State and British Columbia. In: Energy Procedia 146, S. 158–165. DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2018.07.020.

"Sub-seafloor basalts are very common on Earth and enable CO2 mineralization as a long-term storage mechanism, permanently sequestering the carbon in solid rock form. Our project goals include the evaluation of this reservoir as an industrial-scale CO2 storage complex, developing potential source/transport scenarios, conducting laboratory and modeling studies to determine the potential capacity of the reservoir, and completing an assessment of economic, regulatory and project management risks."

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04.08.2018

# New Publications

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Pawlok, D.; et al. (2018): Grasslands may be more reliable carbon sinks than forests in California

Pawlok, D.; Houlton, B. Z.; Wang, Y.; Warlind, D. (2018): Grasslands may be more reliable carbon sinks than forests in California. In: Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (7), S. 74027. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aacb39.

"Using a set of modeling experiments, we show that California grasslands are a more resilient C sink than forests in response to 21st century changes in climate, with implications for designing climate-smart Cap and Trade offset policies. The resilience of grasslands to rising temperatures, drought and fire, coupled with the preferential banking of C to belowground sinks, helps to preserve sequestered terrestrial C and prevent it from re-entering the atmosphere."

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