Luderer, Gunnar; et al. (2018): Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways
Luderer, Gunnar; Vrontisi, Zoi; Bertram, Christoph; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Rogelj, Joeri et al. (2018): Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways. In: Nature Climate change 8 (7), S. 626–633. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6.
"The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO2 emissions, of which residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are the greatest impediment. Here, using an ensemble of seven integrated assessment models (IAMs), we explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions. Even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850–1,150 GtCO2 during 2016–2100, despite carbon prices of US$130–420 per tCO2 by 2030."
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