April 2018

03.04.2018

# New Publications

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MacMartin, Douglas G.; et al. (2018): Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5°C Paris target

MacMartin, Douglas G.; Ricke, Katharine L.; Keith, David W. (2018): Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5°C Paris target. In Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 376 (2119), p. 20160454. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0454.

"We first provide a physical science review of current research, research trends and some of the key gaps in knowledge that would need to be addressed to support informed decisions. Next, since few climate model simulations have considered these limited-deployment scenarios, we synthesize prior results to assess the projected response if solar geoengineering were used to limit global mean temperature to 1.5°C above preindustrial in an overshoot scenario that would otherwise peak near 3°C. While there are some important differences, the resulting climate is closer in many respects to a climate where the 1.5°C target is achieved through mitigation alone than either is to the 3◦C climate with no geoengineering. This holds for both regional temperature and precipitation changes; indeed, there are no regions where a majority of models project that this moderate level of geoengineering would produce a statistically significant shift in precipitation further away from preindustrial levels."

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03.04.2018

# New Publications

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Tanaka, Katsumasa; O’Neill, Brian C. (2018): The Paris Agreement zero-emissions goal is not always consistent with the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature targets

Tanaka, Katsumasa; O’Neill, Brian C. (2018): The Paris Agreement zero-emissions goal is not always consistent with the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature targets. In Nature Climate change 8 (4), pp. 319–324. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0097-x.

"Here, we use a reduced-form integrated assessment model to examine the consistency between temperature- and emission-based targets. We find that net zero GHG emissions are not necessarily required to remain below 1.5 °C or 2 °C, assuming either target can be achieved without overshoot. With overshoot, however, the emissions goal is consistent with the temperature targets, and substantial negative emissions are associated with reducing warming after it peaks."

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02.04.2018

# Media

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Vox: Shell’s vision of a zero carbon world by 2070, explained

"The latest chapter in this story is a new report from Royal Dutch Shell, Europe’s biggest oil company. It’s called the “Sky scenario” and it envisions a world that achieves net-zero carbon emissions by 2070, thus (in the company’s accounting) holding global average temperatures beneath the international target of 2 degrees Celsius. "

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