20.04.2018

# New Publications

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Mengis, Nadine; et al. (2018): 1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing

Mengis, Nadine; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Jalbert, Jonathan; Matthews, H. Damon (2018): 1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing. In Scientific reports 8 (1), p. 5831. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1.

"Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. [...] In this scenario, negative emissions would be required to compensate not only for the increasing non-CO2 climate forcing, but also for the declining natural carbon sinks."

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20.04.2018

# New Publications

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Markusson, Nils; et al. (2018): Towards a cultural political economy of mitigation deterrence by Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) techniques

Markusson, Nils; McLaren, Duncan; Tyfield, David (2018): Towards a cultural political economy of mitigation deterrence by Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) techniques (AMDEG Working Paper, 1).

"This paper sets out a novel theoretical perspective to this challenge, enabling analysis that accounts for interactions between technologies, society and political and economic power. The paper argues that, seen in this light, the scope of GGRs to substitute for mitigation may be easily exaggerated, and thus that the risk of mitigation deterrence should be taken seriously. It proposes novel participative research methods designed to better reveal, evaluate, and enable effective responses to mitigation deterrence."

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18.04.2018

# New Publications

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Wei, Liren; et al. (2018): Global streamflow and flood response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Wei, Liren; Ji, Duoying; Miao, Chiyuan; Moore, John C. (2018): Global streamflow and flood response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. In Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., pp. 1–38. DOI: 10.5194/acp-2018-338.

"Flood risk is projected to increase under projections of future warming climates due to an enhanced hydrological cycle. Solar geoengineering is known to reduce precipitation and slowdown the hydrological cycle, and may be therefore be expected to offset increased flood risk. We examine this hypothesis using streamflow and river discharge responses to the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 experiments."

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16.04.2018

# New Publications

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McLaren, Duncan P. (2018): In a broken world. Towards an ethics of repair in the Anthropocene

McLaren, Duncan P. (2018): In a broken world. Towards an ethics of repair in the Anthropocene. In The Anthropocene Review 12 (11), 205301961876721. DOI: 10.1177/2053019618767211.

"With the power to break Earth Systems comes responsibility to care for them, and arguably to repair them. Climate geoengineering is one possible approach. But repair is under-researched and underspecified in this context. In a first attempt to establish basic principles for the obligations of repair in the Anthropocene, five disciplines of repair are briefly reviewed: reconstruction of historic buildings; remediation of human bodies; restoration of ecosystems; reconfiguration of cultural materials and artifacts; and reconciliation of broken relationships. In each case ethical practices and debates are described to help identify key themes and challenges in understanding repair."

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16.04.2018

# New Publications

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Oliveira Garcia, Wagner de; et al. (2018): Increasing biomass demand enlarges negative forest nutrient budget areas in wood export regions

Oliveira Garcia, Wagner de; Amann, Thorben; Hartmann, Jens (2018): Increasing biomass demand enlarges negative forest nutrient budget areas in wood export regions. In Scientific reports 8 (1), p. 5280. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-22728-5.

"Energy production from biomass is one of the adopted strategies in different European countries to limit global warming to within the 1.5–2° targets after the 2015 UN climate agreement. This will motivate enhanced forest harvest rates and whole tree harvest to supply the increasing biomass demand. Negative nutrient budgets for certain timberland areas where geogenic nutrient supply cannot cope with harvesting rates will be one consequence. A spatially explicit analysis for a U.S. timberland area of 33,570 km2 reveals that for a minimum nutrient loss and supply scenario, negative nutrient budgets occur in 17, 20, 16, and almost 94% of the studied areas for Ca, K, Mg, and P, respectively."

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16.04.2018

# New Publications

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Séférian, Roland; et al. (2018): Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways. The case of water scarcity

Séférian, Roland; Rocher, Matthias; Guivarch, Celine; Colin, Jeanne (2018): Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways. The case of water scarcity. In Environ. Res. Lett. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aabcd7.

"Here, we assess climate constraints relative to water scarcity in response to the global deployment of BECCS. To this end, we confront results from an Earth system model (ESM) and an Integrated assessment model (IAM) under an array of 25 stringent mitigation pathways. These pathways are compatible with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and with cumulative carbon emissions ranging from 230 Pg C and 300 Pg C from January 1st onwards. "

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16.04.2018

# New Publications

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Preston, Christopher J. (2018): The synthetic age. Outdesigning evolution, resurrecting species, and reengineering our world

Preston, Christopher J. (2018): The synthetic age. Outdesigning evolution, resurrecting species, and reengineering our world. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.

"A world designed by engineers and technicians means the birth of the planet's first Synthetic Age. Preston describes a range of technologies that will reconfigure Earth's very metabolism: nanotechnologies that can restructure natural forms of matter; “molecular manufacturing” that offers unlimited repurposing; synthetic biology's potential to build, not just read, a genome; “biological mini-machines” that can outdesign evolution; the relocation and resurrection of species; and climate engineering attempts to manage solar radiation by synthesizing a volcanic haze, cool surface temperatures by increasing the brightness of clouds, and remove carbon from the atmosphere with artificial trees that capture carbon from the breeze."

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16.04.2018

# New Publications

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Russotto, Rick D.; Ackerman, Thomas P. (2018): Changes in clouds and thermodynamics under solar geoengineering and implications for required solar reduction

Russotto, Rick D.; Ackerman, Thomas P. (2018): Changes in clouds and thermodynamics under solar geoengineering and implications for required solar reduction. In Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., pp. 1–32. DOI: 10.5194/acp-2018-345.

"The amount of solar constant reduction required to offset the global warming from an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is an interesting question with implications for assessing the feasibility of solar geoengineering scenarios and for improving our theoretical understanding of Earth's climate response to greenhouse gas and solar forcings. This study investigates this question by analyzing the results of 11 coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models running Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which CO2 concentrations are abruptly quadrupled and the solar constant is simultaneously reduced by an amount tuned to maintain top of atmosphere energy balance and preindustrial global mean temperature."

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15.04.2018

# New Publications

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van Vuuren, Detlef P.; et al. (2018): Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies

van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van den Berg, Maarten; Bijl, David L.; Boer, Harmen Sytze de et al. (2018): Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies. In Nature Climate change 5, p. 519. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0119-8.

"The question arises whether alternative deep mitigation pathways exist. Here, using an integrated assessment model, we explore the impact of alternative pathways that include lifestyle change, additional reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and more rapid electrification of energy demand based on renewable energy. Although these alternatives also face specific difficulties, they are found to significantly reduce the need for CDR, but not fully eliminate it. The alternatives offer a means to diversify transition pathways to meet the Paris Agreement targets, while simultaneously benefiting other sustainability goals."

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10.04.2018

# New Publications

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Lenton, Andrew; et al. (2018): Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways

Lenton, Andrew; Matear, Richard J.; Keller, David P.; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E. (2018): Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways. In Earth Syst. Dynam. 9 (2), pp. 339–357. DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-339-2018.

"Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK) addition (0.25 PmolALK yr−1) over the period 2020–2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. "

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